Stone's Ongoing Meteorological Predictions and Informational Whatnot

@Caleb O, heads up. ^

 

Thanks for the heads up. I never camp around in canyons. (Have witnessed way to many flash floods to do that lol) But always a good idea to stay outa Canyon lands during rainy spells. That said, I've definitely camped in flatlands during storms.....it's either a good time or a good story (and had some fun tails from those). We need the rain though.

 

This was from a similar rain storm to the one heading AZ way. Generally I can cross this "creek" without getting my feet wet....this was immediately after the rain

 

10.05.18. Today has been a day of three (at least) pretty astounding stories about weather and climate.

They're not the same but related -- climate is an average of weather over geologic time scales.

All three at once would be too much to chew. So I'll post them one at a time over a few days.

#1: From severe thunderstorms to snow in one hour in Colorado.

 

Wed, Oct 10, 2018. Michael is now a cat 4 monster. Good luck eastern Gulf Coast US. If I was anywhere down there near the coast, I'd be heading north to higher ground faster than you can say "cat 4 monster".

 

That is a storm I would not want to be in the path of.

Over here in IL we are getting ready for our first cold front of the season. 75 today with a high in the upper 40's or low 50's tomorrow. Looks like our first frost will be coming too.

 

I’m excited for it! Are you in southern Illinois?

 

I wish. I'm in northern Illinois. About 45 minutes outside the city.

I have to admit, I'm pretty excited for the fall weather to finally arrive too, aside from having to now winterize the plants on the balcony lol.

 

Yea Chicago Area is no fun

 

I'm in N Maine, 45 min NW of Bangor, about 35 mi south of Katahdin.

We had an exceptionally hot autumn; almost summer-like at times. I don't think many records were broken for temps on a given day. But the record that was broken was the large number of hot, humid days when we were swimming in tropical air brought up from the south for extended periods.

We finally cooled into fall this week (all but one day of the last seven). Today, we're in all-day light to moderate rain. The fall colors peaked a few days ago, but the amount of color (not the brightest) is peaking yesterday and today. Today, looking out at the woods out back, the trees are sitting totally still, drenched in this gentle, cool water, as if they are standing in a shower saying, "Ahhhh".

I've posted a few pics (below) of the colors from my Flat Top Experimental Hammock Camp out back about 300 m, where my hammock, tarp and insulation are set up for experimentation. (I got a new top quilt yesterday; eager to sleep out in it this weekend when we'll be in the 40's at night.) They seem appropriate for a thread on weather -- I mean, fall and all.

I confess I'm not ready for another winter here this year. Eight winters for a boy who's never experienced this much cold (minus singles F are common, -20F less so but it happens still ... for a while longer) and snow (almost every year up here, 6' - 8' for the winter with 3 - 4' in a pack by spring).

Our snow begins in December (maybe a dusting in late Oct or Nov, but no snow pack covering the ground until spring until December), and melts off in late March/early April.

I'd hoped to be in Scotland this winter for some milder climes. Alas, next year.

Right now, I've got to put on my rain poncho and walk out to Flat Top to check the tarp. It's a new pitch there using a style -- porch mode -- that I've come to favor. Rain usually runs off the back (sloping downwards south to north), but if I don't get the pitch right first time, water pools in the front of the ridge line, making a swimming pool for birds.

(Note to self: get that hammock thread started for winter, eh @BlueDogScout?)

 

Just returned from a couple of hours out at Flat Top and the trail out to it. (I did a lot of raking today to keep the trail easy to follow, including at night in moonlight -- all these yellow leaves around a black trail is more pleasant than street lamps over a sidewalk, and makes walking whisper quiet -- I've gotten very close to everything from birds to deer out there.)

The tarp hang was fine: no pooling; not even a hint. But I discovered a new problem, easily solvable -- I won't discuss it here since it's OT for this thread, and I've decided to start that hammock thread sooner than later. I've had to postpone a trip up to my favorite camp in a big reserve called Nahmakanta, just 15 mi SSW of Katahdin. Bunch of reasons why, ranging from professional requirements (self-imposed at the moment) to financial -- and it's too bad because we may see some awesome weather next week, an Indian Summer.

But I can appease my postponement of the real experience (may still get a chance before snow falls) by starting a thread about it. I'm planning a video or two for it, also. I'll post a link here.

And to get back on track: it's a beautiful, cool (50's F), wet day, similar to what I expect to experience in Scotland in the cooler seasons. And the wet maple (3 sp), poplar, birch and beech leaves on the ground all over -- yellows and oranges speckled with red -- is like walking through a psychedelic playground.

 

With each passing day -- we're now 3 days after impact -- it's becoming more and more obvious that Michael was a true monster. It's now being categorized as the third most powerful storm to ever hit the US mainland. But the true story is how fast it accelerated from a tropical storm to a cat 4. That's unprecedented, apparently, and took everyone by surprise, especially those who did not heed evacuation warnings because they expected a less powerful storm.

The FL panhandle is a mess, and it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. I wonder if that area will ever fully recover. I feel for those who are stuck there with no where to go and no way to get there.

 

I woke up about 0600 the morning of the storm and turned on the weather my lady friend woke up shortly after and when we realized how bad the storm had gotten we jumped up, loaded up some horses and went to Alabama. It took two days for the roads to be cleared enough to get back home. I came home to find the two huge oak trees in my front yard were blown over. One took out my front porch and put a hole in my roof that I could fit through and damaged most of the tin on that side of the roof. The other one fell across two old cars and my power lines. It damaged the service connection when the lines were pulled down. All of the building suppliers were out of the rigid conduit I needed but now it is repaired just waiting for the power company to come reconnect it now. It is amazing the damage that storm caused we were right on the east side of the eye.

 

I feel for you, @ASH . At least you weren't in it when it hit.

 

GA Power got me reconnected some time last night. Now I can wash clothes and get a hot shower in my own house again.

 

Ash, from what I'm reading about what's going on down there, you lucked out. Congrats, and welcome home.

Here's one projection of winter weather in the US in an El Nino year with ... other stuff going on.

 

Our experience with the latest nor'easter has begun. I'm sure it's already affecting most of the east coast, but we've begun with snow showers that are predicted to turn to just rain later. We're reportedly in for some heavy rain tonight, with a warming trend tomorrow.

 

Here's another article to help understand weather for our near future and the next few centuries.

On Halloween, late in hurricane season, Oscar is poised to become a "powerful extra-tropical cyclone" (according to NOAA) threading the needle between Iceland and UK; both are dodging a bullet with this one.

One would do well to consider why this is happening. It's understood, but not many in the public get it ... yet.

I predict it'll be useful for understanding such events during the next few decades. It's not a one-off event.

 

Pretty cool image of that bullet threading that needle.

The trajectory looks like a machete.

 

Sunday, Nov 4, '18: More ... interesting weather coming to the NE US early week.

"Sunday's calm day in northeastern US to give way to more rain, wind and thunderstorms"